Furthermore, Tourism has also proven to be an activity that is extremely vulnerable to external situations and ups and downs, which are not its own but which govern and affect it wherever it is seen. It is enough to look at the cyclical economic downturns, climatic phenomena or even the current pandemic that has shaken the ups and downs of an activity that is undoubtedly beautiful, but which also deserves greater and better attention, understanding and dedication.

While uncertainty and change are the only constant, never before have we been exposed to so much uncertainty and, worse still, to forecasts and economic analyses that have systematically fallen apart or been postponed in time in terms of their validity, and not precisely because of their good omens, but rather the opposite.

At the beginning of the pandemic, a resumption of activity was envisaged for the last quarter of 2020, then, based on the evolution of reality, it changed to various possible scenarios to reach the present day, where we are already managing recovery deadlines at pre-pandemic levels that reach up to 2024.

 By way of example, at the close of 2018 we were told that:

"Therefore, the tourism industry should focus in 2019 on:

1. Product/service innovation.

2. Process innovation.

Organisational innovation.

4. Commercial or marketing innovation.

5. Innovation in information systems. 6. Environmental innovation.

 The 2020s showed us through the pandemic that none of that would matter in the beginning and that the important thing would be: First, to survive. Second, manage uncertainty. Third, to try to provide reassurance and security. Fourth, to rebuild or reinvent ourselves to do battle in a new context.

While it is true that the 6 points mentioned above are crucial for tourism and no one can omit them, there are many other factors that play a role in planning, managing and promoting a destination and the analysis is so complex and exciting that each strategy must be analysed in detail and separately.

It is colonising or enslaving, because the large amounts of capital that are invested in destinations, especially in emerging or less developed ones, do lead to the development of infrastructure, the creation of jobs, the enhancement of local cultures and the promotion of the different places; But the lion's share is taken out of the destinations by large companies and/or entrepreneurs, as has been demonstrated, and in places such as Latin America this capital flight is up to 60% or more, taking advantage of condescending differential policies regarding the payment of taxes and investment incentives granted by the governments in power, often bordering on the scandalous.

It is widely unequal, because although there are sidereal and rather questionable figures for global travel, there are places where people do not even have the time to imagine that they would have the possibility of tourism and enjoy its benefits, despite the fact that hardly anyone disputes that it should be a human right, but that in practice it is "more humane for some than for others", depending on where in the world you were born or the social class to which you belong.

This is why actions linked to Social Tourism (carried out by governments and private companies) will be very welcome and more necessary than ever, so that more people can have access to the benefit of being able to travel and get to know other places and cultures, and also as a way of helping the companies that have been hardest hit by the global pandemic (many of them MSMEs, which are the mainstay of many families).

If we look at the official figures for Uruguay, in the best case scenario, one in ten Uruguayans or more have the opportunity to engage in international tourism, a figure that improves if we look internally.

If we expand these figures to the level of travel by region, we see that South America captures only 2.5% of international tourism that moves globally, with 36 million international tourists by 2019 out of a total of more than 1,400 million, according to figures from the World Tourism Organization (WTO).

It is widely unequal, because depending on the location of the country to which we refer, it is clear that there are countries with more and others with less money to be able to face the different vicissitudes that the activity may face, and for practical purposes it is enough to look at the different economic policies regarding tourism that different countries have been able to implement.   When in Europe, due to the pandemic, there was talk of a new "Marshall Plan" with investments of more than 4,000 million euros to save the sector, one does not need to be very intelligent to realise that in less developed countries these investments have been much less, if any.

It is with concern that I look at the indicators and reports on the basis of which we base our management and planning, because recently an infographic was published in one of the management bodies of a South American country that said: "8 out of 10 Latin Americans plan to travel in 2022", when the reality based on reports from the UN, ECLAC and World Bank, among others, tell us that almost 3 out of 10 Latinos are poor (with clearly unequal figures between the countries of reference, as there are some where almost 5 out of 10 are poor and in others the figures are much lower) and that these figures will increase due to the pandemic, This means that Maslow's Pyramid and other analytical tools allow us to deduce that there are many Latinos who will have food insecurity and other priorities, so they may think about and want to travel, but will not really do so or will not be able to do so in practice.

It is also important to analyse the pace of this 2030 agenda, which moves or dances to the rhythm of the needs of large countries and big business, or does anyone doubt that if China, the USA or Europe do not want to meet these commitments, these deadlines will be extended and delayed at will over time? And the same goes for the commercial and economic interests of large companies, which are driving our planet towards almost unsustainable extremes of survival (see the case of several aviation companies that have committed the absurdity and abuse of even flying empty so as not to lose profitable lines during times when no one was travelling, polluting unnecessarily and consciously).

Recent studies for Latin America tell us that although many companies have sustainability plans (86%), only 37% have been able to implement concrete actions in this sense and that the practice is far from the ideal situation and that we often end up talking about merely aspirational situations, but not real ones.

Another absurdity is to think that everyone will benefit from the resumption of luxury travel, thinking logically that those who have the most will be the first to travel again and thinking that the more they spend the better, when we know that most destinations do not have the infrastructure or the opportunity to access this luxury segment, But also, in practice, many of the destinations will be pleased, obliged and even desperate to have to return to mass tourism in order to sustain and reactivate the battered value chains of tourism, which are extremely damaged and demanding of the governments in power, and rightly so, as they have been rowing for 18 months and more, trying to survive and resist.

Rural tourism will be the main beneficiary, or tourism in the vicinity, a tempting and precious situation, if we again ignore the fact that at least in South America, rural areas (with few exceptions and there are some) are not developed, at least like urban areas, as they do not have the infrastructure, They have neither the infrastructure nor the capacity to absorb a significant increase in demand and continue to be a highly seasonal activity, with the aggravating factor that this little activity, which there is and there was before, did not rank in the figures managed by governments as a significant segment or one that moved the needle in terms of the number of arrivals and the profits generated by tourism.  We can say, and rightly so, that it will be a real opportunity to improve the segment, analysing each place and taking advantage of it to develop infrastructures in line with the times, valuing and generating genuine and different experiences for each place, which will be a possible driving force for the future, but we will have to row even harder.

But we must also say that as the development of rural areas linked to tourism has not generally been planned or managed proactively, with the new arrivals and increased demand, these areas will also be baptised with the problems of increased tourism in urban areas, with an increase in pollution, degradation, overload, impact on the flora and fauna and other phenomena that may have been unknown until now.

The security and guarantees that can be offered by the different destinations and regions will be an important differential factor in the revival, because this will be required by the tourists on the one hand (without whom there would be no tourism), but also by the governments of the destinations to try to provide guarantees to travellers, but also and above all, by their own residents, because fear has spread globally and in general.

At this point, vaccination has been presented as the most viable response and here again we can see inequalities and asymmetries that on the one hand are logical and on the other should make us ashamed, because without a moment's hesitation (and with the usual honourable exceptions); guess who are the countries or regions where the least vaccination takes place.

Innovation and technology will be the mainstay that will guarantee this new resurgence. Undoubtedly, it cannot be argued that new applications, software, promotions and communications will have to be developed that are underpinned by technology and that are appearing more and more exponentially, because people are becoming increasingly digital and because advances in Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) allow it, But here we will have a new bottleneck, because it is to be imagined that in addition to capital and investment to be able to make the necessary adaptations, it will also be necessary to have trained personnel who can meet the requirements of new management skills, and the reality is that in this aspect, Tourism and Tourism training and education are running behind the hare.

This problem is twofold because, in addition to money, trained personnel will be needed, with the so-called "softskills" or soft skills that allow them to analyse and resolve situations, and there will also be winners and losers among those who can adapt and adapt more quickly.

Today we are talking about Big Data strategies and Smart Tourism Destinations (DTIs) that are here to stay and evolve, but be careful, because not everything is Big Data and large digital volumes of information because just as we have generations that are digital natives, we also have digital illiterates, who do not adapt to the use of technologies or directly repel them and who have money, purchasing power and travel and do not use digital devices to leave their footprints and know what they want and/or do, purchasing power and they travel and do not use digital devices to leave us their footprints and know what they want and/or do, so we must not be short-sighted and we will have to know how to manage and attend to these customer segments that are still very, very profitable and that move on the basis of traditional media prior to the advance of ICTs.

It is not a minor issue to talk about intelligent strategies based on digital technology, but to forget about the values and the necessary education that these models imply for those who want to implement them and, above all, manage them and also make use of them.    It is valid to ask ourselves whether we are prepared today to assume the consequences of these new management models, which will surely challenge us as citizens in terms of values, ethics in the handling of data and information, etc.

Where do we stand today? Do we have the infrastructure and the necessary capacity to take on these new management models? And where do ordinary citizens stand today to be fully incorporated into these new models? And in education for these new models? How are we training and who is training future generations? These are some of the probably many more questions that we will necessarily have to answer.

In view of the above, I am also concerned about the lack or absence of leaders and leaders in the tourism sector, and even the UNWTO has been shaken and questioned in its actions and credentials to represent a sector that we have already seen is complex. At this point, it would be good to ask ourselves who should assume the leadership and lead the sector: the great powers that have the resources; should we appeal to professionals and researchers in the sector (despite the fact that their role as generators of important inputs for understanding the activity as a whole is often not recognised); should it be the large companies; should it be the large corporations and clusters that are formed; should it be a regional leadership or should we look for another solution that fits the reality and that has the recognition and strength to allow it to lead the sector.

At present, I believe that the UNWTO can assume this role if it proposes it and if it is supported by its members as a valid actor for this function, but with concrete actions aimed at nuclear, supporting and advising its members in a more proactive manner and generating networks of knowledge, coordination and cooperation between its members and those who are not yet members.

A not minor issue that should be urgently considered is that of the Communication on Tourism, because it really worries me that if we all agree that it is an activity that can generate investments, jobs, foreign currency income for destinations and benefits in terms of cultural exchanges; why is it an activity that is generally seen as an expense and not as an investment by governments and the collective in general?

It is a question that those of us who work in the sector should really ask ourselves because it means that we are not being able to communicate well the benefits and advantages of the activity and that most of those who have to invest and make decisions at the governmental level are not really convinced of this reality or at least have other priorities.

Above all, I am concerned that, in the face of so much evidence and experience accumulated during the pandemic, there are many who proclaim a new model or paradigm for tourism, but in practice there is a risk that it will end up being more of the same and of dubious effectiveness, with little certainty of real change for the majority.

Although advances are happening faster and faster and new developments are communicated almost immediately, which means that each action implemented can be easily replicated elsewhere, it is unlikely that the responses and actions required for each reality will be global or even regional, and it will be necessary to seek specific and precise solutions for each case.

It is clear and evident that the prevailing paradigm up to the time of the pandemic failed and was not able to interpret the new situation in order to cope with it, and according to Kuhn this situation would lead to or facilitate the emergence of a new model to follow.

What should the new model, approach or prevailing paradigm be?

The difference is justified in that the paradigm (dealing with assumptions), the model (describing a phenomenon) and the approach (in the way of giving answers to a problem), and in Tourism we are dealing with concrete problems that we want to solve.

In practice, although the three concepts are often used simultaneously or as synonyms, I personally take a model as something to imitate or follow, which is exactly what I would not like to do today for Tourism.

Undoubtedly, for every problem or situation there is no single recipe that fits all scenarios, but that is precisely why we should look for the necessary answer or answers for each case, even if it sounds like a trite and previously heard phrase.

Personally, I am inclined to see several approaches as   viable, adapted to different realities and needs, which may be regional or even individual.

It is not illogical to think about this possibility when we hear more and more from Big Data, e-marketing, e-commerce and communications that it is possible and necessary to personalise offers more and more. So, following this logic, why not be able to adapt management models that are applicable to each reality and based on the necessary studies and research that serve as a starting point, based on clear paths of objectification, planning, management and, above all, measurement of results based on clear and reliable indicators for each reality.

These approaches will undoubtedly require strong leadership on the part of the governments or managing bodies in each destination, with the necessary participation, agreement and cooperation of all the actors involved.

All actors involved either directly or indirectly should have a voice, and those indirectly involved should also be taken into account.

If we talk about and conceive of a value chain for tourism, we cannot ignore the fact that the strength of the whole chain lies in its weakest link, and that is why we must support or solidify all of them in order to be able to manage this concept.

A necessary research and initial situation study will allow us to know where we stand, what are the needs and shortcomings of all parties, but also their strengths and opportunities, to see what and how we can aspire to.

From this necessary initial diagnosis, we will be able to see where we stand, define objectives, goals and concrete actions in order to draw up a road map and, very, very importantly, define valid indicators that will allow us to measure whether we are doing well and thus maintain, correct or directly change where necessary.

There is no point in aiming for unrealistic goals and objectives because this will only frustrate the implementation and management of the approach.

In the same logic, it will be useless to copy models that do not adapt to the reality we want to address, although of course we will look at what is being done around us, as they will also look at what we do, benchmarking will continue to be as valid as ever.  

There are some key aspects that I believe we cannot ignore in this approach:

• • As much as we do not like it, few people in the world place Uruguay on the radar of possible options to visit, as we have a big problem of image and positioning in the minds of tourists. 

  • We also know that the major international tourist movements take place at the regional level, which is why our matrix depends heavily on Argentines and Brazilians, and that is why our main actions will bear better fruit in this reality and/or context.

  • There will be no pportunities without connectivity, today Uruguay has 50% of the air connectivity it had before the pandemic, and those who cannot get there will not come. Befoore the pandemic, Carrasco Airport received or mobilised 2 million passengers, the port of Colonia another 2 million, Montevideo airport 500,000 passengers and Tres Cruces 12 million passengers. 

  • The famous "Chinese story", which follows from the three previous points, will not come to those who do not know us and who do not have connectivity. If it is possible to join a regional strategy to attract long-haul travellers, who, if they decide to come to these lands, will surely take the opportunity to visit several places and not just one (a situation that does not only apply to the Chinese market, but to other markets as well).

  • If we cannot approach the Chinese market directly, we can aspire to capture the Chinese diaspora that already exists in Latin America and that are easier to approach and we could even use them in the future (in the good sense of the word) as communicators of our existence.

  • Universal accessibility, we have improved, yes, but we still have a long way to go and there are no excuses in that respect, we have to improve even more.

  • We must improve and work better on the segmentation of markets and products we want to offer (e.g. LGBTQ+ Tourism, Rural Tourism, Wine Tourism, etc.).

  • We can have the best place, destination, product and/or service, but if potential customers don't know about it, we have nothing.

  • We know that it is easier and cheaper to build the loyalty of the tourists we already have today than to attract new tourists, so let us act accordingly, but let us not lose sight of the fact that we can and should aspire to other markets, but based on real possibilities and connectivity.

  • The Big Data or Destination ITD strategy is here to stay and we must join it because the times demand it and also because it provides us with an ordered framework for action in terms of areas such as Innovation, Technology, Accessibility, Sustainability and Governance that allows us to organise and measure the actions to be implemented.

  • Do not lose sight of the segments and/or generations of tourists who are not digital natives and who are still highly profitable segments that can be addressed by traditional means of communication and measurement.

  • Having a guide or path to follow translates into more efficient management because we will know the actions to implement, the indicators to assess to measure achievements and also because it helps to manage resources more efficiently and to save or avoid unnecessary expenses.

  • The use of Big Data is now an obligation and we must be able to rely on the information it provides to measure, detect and better meet the needs of tourists who visit us and those who do not, but taking the tools and indicators that are viable and valid to our reality.

  • It will do us no good to set ourselves objectives that are not achievable or real and/or to try to imitate strategies that are beyond our reach. - Research, education and training in tourism should be a differentiating   factor that we are not taking advantage of today; there is little research in tourism, little training and we are not able to establish a common lexicon among professionals in the sector, which undoubtedly complicates the development and improvement of the activity.

  • Innovation should be underpinned by concrete actions and investments for the improvement of the sector, or even be solved in its entirety in cases where it is beneficial and strategic.

  • The aim should be to regulate or at least establish quality standards that will result in an improvement of the services and products provided in the field of tourism.

  • Formal areas for discussion and work must be established between the different sectors and actors in the value chain, a situation which is not currently in sight or which occurs in isolation or by sector. -

  • We need to engage in a more active and proactive regional strategy, as our country has been marginalised or left out of several initiatives that have been implemented at the regional level.

  • In addition to the previous point, our country is currently less competitive in terms of prices and cost increases compared to the rest of the countries in the region.

  • Governance or the government should adopt a more comprehensive strategy in terms of not differentiating between the different destinations in the country, for example, clearly omitting Montevideo, which is a mistake. "If Montevideo does well, we will all do well; if Montevideo does badly, we will all do badly too.

  • Internally, competition (competition + collaboration), yes, between destinations, but also cooperation in pursuit of a common benefit for all, where the sum of the parts adds up to more than the individualities.

  • Another particularity that must be assumed in terms of Governance is to define whether to opt for a more centralised model or a more participatory one, where the citizens themselves and even tourists can contribute solutions and decide (personally, I firmly believe that the second option should be the one that prevails, with the necessary regulatory control and guarantee from the centrality of governments).

  • You should try to be proactive and not reactive, as this second option will be the worst of all because you will always be running from behind and have less chance to decide.

  • There will be less and less intermediation with customers, sales will be more and more direct and the suggestions and opinions of referrals will be very important when deciding what to do. 

  • Whatever action you want to implement to sell a destination, so far there is nothing that can facilitate the action more than recognising the 4 phases in which a traveller can find himself:

1 - The prior search.

2 - The booking and purchase of the trip.

3 - The during the journey.

4 - And the post trip.

• And finally, define the customer segments we want to address, define a specific strategy for each of them and use the "Journey Maps" or customer maps to see how they interact with us and where we have strengths and weaknesses in order to improve our proposals. 

• Analyse  country brand to see if it adapts today to the global and even regional reality and thus be able to make the necessary changes to be able to compete in better conditions.

 In conclusion, it is certainly not an easy situation and, as I have been saying from the beginning, there is no recipe for success, but I firmly believe that we can and must generate a great national debate to define a strategy at the national level because we have all the conditions to do so and because we will all benefit from this situation.

Tourism is a beautiful activity that also generates good dividends for Uruguay, but it also deserves to be more highly valued and approached in an integral way in order to generate an approach with everyone, where we can all contribute and be part of it.

At this point, where I wanted to give a personal reflection on Tourism, I listen to you and accept suggestions, contributions and constructive criticisms that come with due respect.

Thank you in advance,

Mag. Nicolás Raffo Menoni

nicoraffo74@gmail.com