Five key takeaways from COP28

1. Taking stock of actions

Dubai was seen as a critical opportunity for nations to “course correct” climate action through the GST, as global emissions continue to rise by 1.5% a year, when they need to reduce by 7% annually to 2030 to keep the goal of 1.5ºC alive. The GST was a sobering reminder that the world was far off its targets when it was released this summer.

An important purpose of the GST is to inform what must be done now, and the document was a key anchor for planning and debate. Negotiators concluded that:

•  There is “the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions” and calls for parties to contribute to “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net-zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.”

•  Tripling the global capacity of renewable energy and doubling the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements before 2030.

•  Significantly curbing non-CO2 emissions, with a particular focus on reaching near-zero global methane emissions by 2030 – which are 80 times more harmful than carbon dioxide in the short run.

•  Phasing out inefficient subsidies for fossil fuels that do not address energy poverty or facilitate just transitions, as soon as feasible.

3. Reshaping demand to slash emissions in agriculture

Food systems are an impact multiplier for a just and equitable transition, accounting for 30% of global emissions, rising costs and nutrition issues. The COP28 Presidency placed this issue as a core part of its climate action agenda, announcing the Emirates Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action with the support of 134 countries (representing 70% of the world’s land), with commitments to include emissions from agriculture and farming into their national climate action plans.

In response, the World Economic Forum launched the First Movers Coalition for Food, to create aggregated market demand for sustainably produced and low-emission agricultural commodities. The initiative, which is championed by the UAE and a growing coalition of corporate and research partners, aims to de-risk upfront investment, with its 20 current members signalling a combined estimated procurement commitment of $10-$20 billion by 2030.

5. Addressing adaptation and supporting the most vulnerable

The failure to adapt to climate change is the second most severe long-term global risk (with climate mitigation failure being the first). The GST was successful in defining seven targets as part of a Global Goal on Adaptation by 2030, including enhancing resilience to water-related disasters, embedding climate positive approaches in food and water production and use, and ensuring climate-resilient health services. The summit supported the mobilization of $188 million for the UN’s Adaptation Fund for 2023, which, although progressive, falls short of the aim of $300 million targeted annually in contributions, and significantly lower than the estimated $215 billion required per year for developing countries.

In tandem with accelerating adaptation efforts, another key milestone achieved at COP28 was the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund, securing over $726 million in funding to support countries most severely affected by climate change. The commitments, while a positive start to the fund, represents 0.2% of the funding required.

What’s still needed?

While it’s always hard to match the high expectations of the global community, the conference outcomes reflect a step forward in the right direction. However, it's important to note that the UAE Consensus, just like the Paris Agreement, is not legally binding. Therefore, there is a pressing need to define a roadmap for this transition and ensure a swift and effective implementation of the GST by nations.

Expectations were also high regarding pledges and investments from both public and private capital to fast track the net-zero transition, after limited progress on the topic at COP27. While COP28 successfully mobilized over $85 billion in financing, there is a clear acknowledgment that this falls short of rebuilding trust and translating the first GST into tangible actions that can effectively bend the emissions curve.

The climate summit concludes with a growing recognition of the urgency to address climate change and the determination to accelerate action. Enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the commitment to transition away from fossil fuels, triple the renewable energy capacity by 2030, significant climate pledges, the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund and the acknowledgement of a just transition are all key takeaways from COP28. Moreover, the emphasis on nature-based solutions and the climate-health nexus signals a shift towards a more holistic and inclusive approach to climate action and expectations are to see more cross-sector collaborations, fostering inclusivity in our pursuit of a resilient 1.5°C world that leaves no one behind.

As COP28 draws to a close, leaders have much work to do. For a start, governments will make their next revisions to their NDCs by 2025, with the GST guiding what those changes should be.

But beyond this, leaders will build momentum most successfully through true multistakeholder events. The next of these on the global calendar – the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos this January – will draw international organizations, global companies, relevant civil society and academic institutions, and more than 100 governments. As in past years, these leaders come together to move forward the takeaways from COP28 and other milestone events. As we speed closer to 2030, such events will serve as critical and pivotal junctions for the global community to make change happen.

Authors: 

• Hashendra Wijesinha

Director, Estrategia y Gestión de Programas, Foro Económico Mundial

• Laia Barbarà

Este artículo forma parte de: Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático COP28