Claire Delorme
When heat reshapes Europe’s tourism map: Climate, traveller behaviour and emerging destinations in 2026
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Claire Delorme
When heat reshapes Europe’s tourism map: Climate, traveller behaviour and emerging destinations in 2026
Before beginning my article, I would like to express my sincere gratitude and congratulations to the entire TSTT team for the outstanding work they carry out. I would especially like to thank my friend Antonio Santos del Valle for his invaluable professional advice, timely guidance, and unwavering professionalism.
For many years, in France we have regarded the European Mediterranean as one of the continent’s greatest tourism assets. Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Greece have built a substantial part of their international appeal around an apparently straightforward climatic promise: sunshine, warm temperatures, beaches, and a long summer season. However, as a French researcher specialising in the relationship between tourism and climate, I believe that, in 2026, this interpretation needs to be reconsidered. Heat, traditionally marketed as a tourism asset, is increasingly becoming a risk factor as well.
This is not a phenomenon that has suddenly emerged this year. What we are witnessing in 2026 is the consolidation of trends already identified in previous seasons: more intense heatwaves, persistently high night-time temperatures, wildfires, water restrictions, and a growing perception among certain groups of tourists that July and August may no longer be the optimal months for visiting some regions of Southern Europe.
The fundamental question, therefore, is not whether climate change will affect tourism. It already is. The more scientifically compelling question is how it will reshape the geography and seasonality of tourist flows.
For decades, high temperatures were regarded almost as synonymous with good weather in the European tourism mindset. That association is now beginning to reveal clear limitations. There is a substantial difference between temperatures that are pleasant enough to enjoy the beach and conditions of extreme heat that make it difficult to walk around a city, sleep comfortably, or engage in outdoor activities.
From the perspective of tourist behaviour, this introduces an increasingly important variable: thermal comfort.
Tourists do not simply choose a destination; they also choose a set of environmental conditions. When forecast temperatures exceed certain thresholds, the likelihood increases that visitors will adjust their schedules, reduce outdoor activities, replace planned excursions, or even reconsider their destination and travel dates altogether.
This shift is particularly significant for Spain, Italy, Greece, and Portugal. Cities such as Seville, Córdoba, Madrid, Rome, Florence, and Athens possess an extraordinary cultural heritage, yet much of the visitor experience involves extended periods of walking. When temperatures approach or exceed 40°C, the very model of urban tourism comes under pressure.
Extreme heat is also quietly reshaping tourist schedules. The early morning hours and the period after sunset are becoming increasingly valuable, while the middle of the day is becoming less attractive. Museums, restaurants, transport services, guided tours, and cultural activities will progressively need to adapt to this new temporal distribution of demand.
It would be methodologically incorrect to interpret the developments observed in 2026 in isolation. Europe has experienced a succession of exceptionally warm years, and the Mediterranean is one of the regions particularly vulnerable to climate warming.
Recent seasons have provided clear examples. Greece has experienced episodes of extreme heat accompanied by wildfires affecting major tourist areas. Italy has recorded exceptionally high temperatures in cities and regions across the centre and south of the country. Spain has endured successive heatwaves, prolonged droughts, and episodes of extraordinary temperatures. Portugal faces many of the same risks, particularly those associated with extreme heat, wildfires, and water stress.
An exceptional episode may be interpreted as a meteorological anomaly. A succession of extremely hot summers, however, begins to influence the consumer decision-making process. Tourists learn and adapt. They consult weather forecasts more frequently, examine historical temperature data, pay closer attention to wildfires and climate alerts, and compare destinations using criteria that carried considerably less weight a decade ago.
In 2026, this behavioural adaptation is particularly significant because travellers also have access to an unprecedented capacity for immediate information and comparison. Weather forecasts available ten days before departure can influence last-minute bookings, activities, excursions, and even changes to travel itineraries.
One of the most significant consequences could be the progressive climate-driven reduction in the seasonality of Mediterranean tourism.
This does not mean that July and August will cease to attract millions of visitors. School holidays, working calendars, and established social habits continue to concentrate enormous demand during these months. However, for travellers with greater flexibility, May, June, September, and October are becoming increasingly competitive alternatives.
Spain provides a particularly interesting example. Andalusia, the Valencian Community, the Balearic Islands, Catalonia, and Murcia could benefit from longer tourism seasons if a proportion of demand shifts away from periods of peak heat. Comparable developments could emerge in Portugal’s Algarve, the Greek islands and coastal regions, and across extensive areas of Italy.
Paradoxically, climate warming may simultaneously generate both losses and opportunities. A destination may become less comfortable in August while becoming more attractive in April, May, October, or even November.
For the tourism economy, this requires a gradual departure from the concept of a rigid high season and a transition towards more dynamic tourism calendars.
From a French perspective, this phenomenon is particularly evident because it has the potential to reshape tourism competition within Europe.
If the Mediterranean experiences excessively hot summers, regions traditionally regarded as having more temperate climates may gain a climatic advantage. France’s Atlantic coast, Brittany, Normandy, and certain mountainous areas may become relatively more attractive during periods of intense heat. A similar dynamic may emerge in northern Spain, from Galicia to Asturias, Cantabria, and the Basque Country.
Destinations located further north in Europe could also benefit.
This shift should not be interpreted as an immediate substitution of the Mediterranean by Scandinavia or the Atlantic regions. Established tourism destinations possess infrastructure, connectivity, cultural and natural heritage, reputation, and business ecosystems that are difficult to replicate. Nevertheless, even a relatively modest redistribution of tourist flows can have significant economic consequences when hundreds of millions of journeys are involved.
This brings us to an essential concept: the geographical redistribution of climate competitiveness.
Climate change does not affect all destinations in the same way. It alters their relative competitive advantages.
Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Greece: Confronting a Common Challenge
The four countries differ considerably in geographical and economic terms, yet they share a high degree of exposure to climate-related risks within their tourism sectors.
Spain probably possesses one of the strongest capacities for adaptation, largely because of its territorial and climatic diversity. While inland and Mediterranean regions face increasingly intense heat, the country can offer Atlantic and Cantabrian coastal destinations, as well as rural and mountain areas, as alternative tourism environments. Italy likewise benefits from remarkable geographical diversity, although major heritage cities such as Rome, Florence, and Venice face specific challenges associated with high concentrations of visitors and environmental comfort.
Portugal may benefit from the Atlantic influence across part of its territory, although it remains exposed to drought, wildfires, and extreme temperatures. Greece perhaps faces one of the most complex scenarios, owing to the combined effects of extreme heat, insularity, pressure on water resources, and wildfire risk.
A further challenge common to all four countries is energy demand. As temperatures rise, hotels, tourist accommodation, restaurants, and retail businesses require greater use of air conditioning and cooling systems. This increases operating costs and places additional pressure on electricity grids precisely during periods of peak tourist occupancy.
Swimming pools, laundry facilities, gardens, golf courses, showers, and hotel consumption all compete for a resource that is becoming increasingly strategic in certain Mediterranean regions.
For this reason, discussing the adaptation of tourism to climate change also means addressing energy, urban planning, water management, transport, and public health.
Tourism decisions in 2026 demonstrate the extent to which climate is ceasing to be a secondary consideration in travel. Price, connectivity, and quality remain fundamental, but environmental conditions are playing an increasingly important role in the decision-making equation.
Nor will this behaviour be homogeneous. A young couple seeking a beach holiday may tolerate temperatures that would prove problematic for a family with young children or for older travellers. The impact of climate change must therefore be analysed through demand segmentation rather than solely through aggregate visitor-arrival figures.
The industry will need to learn to market not simply destinations, but suitable climatic windows for different tourist profiles.
This transformation may ultimately affect pricing as well. In the future, a week in June or September offering excellent thermal conditions could command a higher relative value, while certain periods traditionally regarded as peak season may experience greater volatility when they coincide with extreme-heat alerts.
The response should not consist of presenting climate change solely as a threat. European tourism has an extraordinary capacity to adapt, but effective adaptation requires planning.
Cities will need to provide more shade, vegetation, and climate shelters; improve the energy efficiency of tourist accommodation; ensure reliable access to water; adapt the scheduling of activities; develop protocols for wildfires and extreme heat; diversify tourism products; and promote alternative travel seasons.
Communication will also need to evolve. For decades, we marketed Southern Europe through images of almost permanent sunshine. In the decades ahead, we will have to learn to market something more complex and more valuable: comfort, resilience, and climate safety.
As a French researcher, I observe this process from a dual perspective. France may benefit to some extent from a redistribution of summer tourism towards Atlantic and more northerly regions, but it also shares many of the risks faced by its Mediterranean neighbours. Southern France is by no means protected from heatwaves, drought, or wildfires.
It would therefore be a mistake to interpret this situation simply as competition between countries.
In 2026, we continue to travel in enormous numbers to Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Greece. The Mediterranean remains one of the world’s great tourism regions, and it will continue to be so. Yet beneath these enormous visitor numbers, a deeper transformation is taking place: travel dates, daily schedules, preferences, and perceptions of risk are all changing.
The tourist of the future will probably not stop seeking the sun. What they will stop seeking is heat without limits.
And that seemingly small distinction may ultimately reshape a substantial part of Europe’s tourism economy.
Author: Claire Delorme
French researcher specialising in tourism, climate change, and the transformation of European destinations.
The authors are responsible for the choice and presentation of the facts contained in this document and for the opinions expressed therein, which are not necessarily those of Tourism and Society Think Tank and do not commit the Organization, and should not be attributed to TSTT or its members.
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