Behind these optimistic figures, however, lie constraints that could slow growth or distort it if they are not addressed through coordinated policy and investment. ACI World emphasizes that while global demand has a solid base, growth is not uniform across regions. Some geographies are accelerating faster than others, which can create imbalances in routes, airport development, and service capacity. At the same time, operational capacity limits—both in airport infrastructure and in airspace management—are beginning to act as serious bottlenecks. Congestion at major hubs, limited runway expansion options, and the complexity of coordinating air traffic control in dense corridors all increase the risk that passenger growth could outpace the system’s ability to absorb it smoothly.
The operational complexity of today’s air transport ecosystem is not a marginal issue. Persistent supply-chain disruptions, geopolitical uncertainty, and volatility in energy markets continue to put pressure on airlines, airports, and regulators. These tensions translate into higher operating costs, delays in aircraft deliveries, and difficulties in expanding or modernizing infrastructure on the timelines required to meet rising demand. When capacity investments lag, the practical consequences are felt by travelers and businesses alike: longer delays, reduced reliability, and higher costs that can erode the economic benefits of connectivity.
In this context, ACI World—under the leadership of Justin Erbacci—has stressed that projected growth is not guaranteed unless the sector moves decisively on the foundations that support it. His message is that aviation stakeholders, governments, and regulators must intensify cooperation to accelerate airport infrastructure investment, optimize airspace capacity, and strengthen operational resilience. The underlying idea is straightforward: passenger demand can translate into economic value only if the system is capable of delivering reliable service at scale. That means more than terminal expansions; it also involves digitization, better coordination among institutions, improved procedures, and planning that anticipates future constraints rather than reacting to them after they become visible crises.
From an economic perspective, the continued rise of air transport has profound implications for national competitiveness and global integration. Passenger traffic does not merely enable international tourism and business trips; it also supports labor mobility, academic collaboration, and cultural exchange, while strengthening the connective tissue of global value chains. Yet this same interdependence makes aviation highly sensitive to shocks. A sudden geopolitical escalation, a macroeconomic slowdown, or a new disruption in energy or logistics markets can rapidly reduce demand, alter route profitability, and force the system into defensive adjustments—sometimes reversing optimistic trends in a matter of months.
The projected growth also raises persistent questions about environmental sustainability. Aviation is essential to global mobility, but it also contributes a meaningful share of transport-related emissions. Long-term increases in passenger volumes intensify the debate among policymakers, climate experts, and industry leaders about how to reconcile connectivity with decarbonization commitments. While the ACI World forecast focuses primarily on traffic volumes and capacity constraints, the broader context suggests that future growth will be increasingly tied to the pace of adoption of cleaner technologies, operational efficiencies, and sustainable aviation fuels, as well as to regulatory frameworks that encourage transition without undermining connectivity.
In sum, the forecast of 10.2 billion passengers in 2026 and the possibility of doubling traffic by 2045 sends a strong signal of confidence in the long-term relevance of aviation. At the same time, it underscores the urgent need for integrated strategies that align investment, regulation, innovation, and sustainability. The future of air transport will depend not only on people’s willingness to fly, but on the collective ability of the sector and governments to anticipate constraints, expand capacity responsibly, and ensure that growth remains resilient, efficient, and broadly beneficial.
