The report sets out scenarios and, in the highest-impact case, anticipates that international arrivals would decline by 4.7 million visitors. The drop would be particularly pronounced in markets linked to the Visa Waiver Program through ESTA (Electronic System for Travel Authorization). Under that assumption, the WTTC projects that in 2026 there would be a 23.7% decrease in visitors arriving from countries covered by ESTA, compared with an alternative scenario in which no changes are introduced to entry requirements.
At the center of the discussion are the proposed modifications to the ESTA program, which would raise the level of information disclosure required from tourists by more broadly incorporating social media-related data. The WTTC stresses that, beyond the specific measure, the signal perceived by international travelers is decisive: greater administrative friction, uncertainty, or exposure of personal information can translate into distrust and, ultimately, a decision to choose another destination. The Council notes that such policies tend to affect leisure travel first, but they also have repercussions for family visits, multi-destination trips and short-stay segments, which are particularly sensitive to perceptions of ease of entry.
The analysis—produced by the WTTC in collaboration with GSIQ and Oxford Economics—also highlights international comparisons. In its assessment, if adopted, the US entry policy would be viewed as more restrictive than that of key competitors such as the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada and several destinations in Western Europe. That perception, the WTTC warns, would place the country at a disadvantage in the global tourism market, at a time when travelers have multiple alternatives and make decisions increasingly far in advance, guided by criteria such as security, convenience, price and overall experience.
WTTC President and CEO Gloria Guevara acknowledges that US border security is essential and that governments have a responsibility to manage risk. However, she argues that public policy design must balance that objective against the economic and social impact, particularly when the travel and tourism industry functions as a driver of job creation and activity across multiple US states and cities. In her view, introducing requirements that are perceived as intrusive or excessively burdensome may ultimately penalize the sector’s recovery and growth by weakening international traveler confidence and reducing demand flows.
The WTTC concludes that, if the goal is to strengthen controls without eroding competitiveness, it will be crucial to adopt proportionate, transparent measures communicated with clarity, so that security does not become an additional barrier for a sector that, beyond generating revenue, supports investment, innovation and employment. In an increasingly competitive global environment, the organization warns, ease of entry and regulatory predictability have become decisive factors when travelers choose a destination.
