According to the WTTC survey, conducted in partnership with GSIQ and Oxford Economics across key markets such as Australia, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Spain, and Italy, about one third of respondents—around 34%—said they would be somewhat or much less likely to visit the U.S. in the next two to three years if broader personal-data requirements were introduced, including access to information from social networks. Only 12% said such a change would make them more likely to travel to the country.
Beyond measuring intent, WTTC used these responses as an input for detailed economic modelling designed to quantify the potential effects of a downturn in international demand. Under a high-impact scenario, the analysis estimates that the United States could receive up to 4.7 million fewer international arrivals from ESTA-program countries in 2026, representing a 23.7% decline versus baseline projections that assume no policy change. This drop in visitors would translate into direct losses in tourism spending of as much as $15.7 billion, alongside an even larger contraction when considering the sector’s overall footprint, with up to $21.5 billion in losses to tourism- and travel-related GDP.
Reduced spending and activity would also have significant implications for employment. According to WTTC’s assessment, as many as 157,000 jobs in the United States could be affected or eliminated as a result of the contraction in tourism activity if these policy changes are implemented. That level of job loss is comparable to the number of jobs the U.S. typically creates in a single quarter, underscoring the scale of the potential impact on the broader economy and on communities that rely on tourism to generate employment—from hotels and restaurants to transportation providers and related services.
WTTC President and CEO Gloria Guevara stressed that “U.S. border security is vital, but the proposed changes will harm job creation, something the Administration values greatly.” Guevara added that even small shifts in traveller behaviour, driven by requirements perceived as intrusive, would have “real economic consequences” in a sector that is already highly competitive globally. The prevailing view among surveyed travellers is that expanded data demands would make the United States seem less welcoming and less competitive versus rival destinations such as the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, and Western Europe, where entry procedures are generally perceived as less invasive.
WTTC also highlights that U.S. tourism has not yet fully recovered from the losses incurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, a period during which the country lost tens of millions of international visitors. In this context, any measure that reduces ease of entry could jeopardize not only the recovery but also the longer-term growth of inbound tourism, which contributes billions of dollars to the economy and supports millions of direct and indirect jobs.
The WTTC warning comes as the United States prepares to host major global events expected to draw significant numbers of visitors, including the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the 2028 Los Angeles Olympic Games. The organization has urged U.S. policymakers to carefully evaluate the economic, social, and global-competitiveness impacts of any changes to entry rules, and to pursue a balance that safeguards security without undermining the country’s attractiveness as a leading destination.
