The adjustment does not mean that Chinese consumers have lost their appetite for international travel. The main change lies in how frequently they are choosing to go abroad. Those who ultimately decide to travel internationally are generally maintaining relatively solid budgets, while other consumers are opting to postpone overseas holidays amid an economic environment that encourages tighter control over discretionary spending.
China’s prolonged property market downturn and uncertainty surrounding the broader economic outlook are contributing to this more cautious approach. These pressures have been compounded by disruptions affecting certain international routes, which have reduced the appeal of some long-haul journeys. As a result, Chinese travelers are increasingly weighing price, convenience, safety and the overall quality of the experience before making a booking.
The projected volume for 2026 is particularly significant when compared with 2019. Before the pandemic, Chinese travelers made approximately 175 million international trips, including journeys to destinations within Greater China, generating around $255 billion in spending. The market has therefore recovered to a substantial scale, although consumer habits and travel patterns have changed considerably.
Geopolitical developments are also reshaping Asia’s tourism landscape. Japan, which had become one of the most popular destinations among Chinese travelers in recent years, could experience a sharp decline in arrivals from China in 2026. Diplomatic tensions and reduced air capacity have weakened its position, while Thailand has also lost some of its appeal amid concerns arising from reports involving scams and safety issues.
This environment is particularly benefiting destinations closer to mainland China. Hong Kong and Macao together account for nearly 40% of China’s projected outbound travel market this year. Geographic proximity, ease of access and generally lower travel costs help explain their popularity. However, high visitor numbers do not necessarily translate into higher tourism revenue. Hong Kong could receive around 41 million trips in 2026, although estimated average spending stands at approximately $310 per visitor.
The situation contrasts sharply with that of some European markets. France, for example, is expected to receive around 2.2 million trips from China, a considerably smaller figure but one associated with travelers who have significantly greater purchasing power. Estimated spending reaches approximately $7,622 per visitor, highlighting the economic importance that the long-haul, high-spending segment continues to represent.
South Korea is emerging as one of the main beneficiaries of this redistribution of Chinese tourism. The country could welcome seven million visitors from China and generate close to $13 billion in spending, supported by shopping activity and the diversion of some demand that previously favored Japan. Average expenditure would amount to around $1,815 per traveler.
Despite the downward revision in forecasts, China’s international travel market continues to show positive momentum. The total number of outbound trips in 2026 is expected to be approximately 7% higher than the previous year. Average spending also remains broadly stable at around $1,437 per trip. The figures therefore point to a recovery that continues to advance, albeit at a slower pace and under a different model: Chinese travelers have not withdrawn from the international market, but they are becoming considerably more selective about when to travel, where to go and how much a trip is truly worth spending on.
