AAA travel agency association forecasts record cruise passengers in the Uni

AAA travel agency association forecasts record cruise passengers in the United States

21-10-25

The cruise industry is sailing with a tailwind. According to new projections from the American Automobile Association’s travel agency service (AAA), 2026 will cement a historic growth cycle in the United States: 21.7 million Americans will embark on ocean cruises next year, after a 2025 that will already beat expectations with 20.7 million—marking another annual high. In relative terms, volume would rise 8.4% between 2024 and 2025 and grow another 4.5% in 2026, confirming the robustness of the post-pandemic recovery and a sustained appetite for this vacation format. For travelers, cruises offer price clarity, a wide range of itineraries, and a value proposition that often outcompetes comparable land-based stays—factors that help explain the strength of projected demand.

AAA, which represents millions of motorists and is a reference source for mobility and tourism forecasts, also underscores that 2025 was already on track for record figures. Early this year the association estimated 19 million U.S. cruise passengers for 2025; today the forecast has been revised up to 20.7 million, reinforcing the message that the booking “wave” has been stronger than expected during WAVE season and throughout the summer. This improvement suggests the propensity to book in advance remains high, with consumers prioritizing experiences, planning earlier, and finding in cruises a broad offer—from short Caribbean getaways to voyages to Alaska and the Mediterranean.

The demand map continues to be led by the Caribbean, where installed capacity, air connectivity, and top-tier homeports converge. Florida consolidates its role as the main gateway, with Miami, Port Canaveral, and Fort Lauderdale leading traffic, while other hubs such as Galveston expand terminals and welcome new lines. This combination of infrastructure and product variety helps attract both first-timers and repeat cruisers seeking next-generation ships and tailored experiences—from signature dining to immersive entertainment. For host destinations, growth brings opportunities and challenges: spreading flows, investing in efficient terminals, and deepening port and in-destination sustainability practices to maximize social and economic benefits.

On the business front, strong demand is already reflected in guidance and outlooks from major cruise companies. Higher revenue and occupancy, coupled with capacity management strategies and new concepts, translate into healthier margins and an investment appetite that includes fleet renewal, new terminals, and tech solutions to enhance the experience on board and ashore. The virtuous cycle works when satisfaction remains high and the value proposition continues to outperform comparable land options—something that, according to the data, has occurred consistently for the third consecutive year.

AAA’s figures align with global trends reported by the sector. While the association focuses on the U.S. market, the global trade association CLIA has indicated that the worldwide ecosystem is advancing steadily and that cruisers’ intent to sail again remains elevated—an essential indicator of loyalty and product health. The convergence of both vectors—record domestic traction and strong global repeat intent—points to continued expansion into 2026, especially if booking momentum holds and cost inflation eases. For ecosystem players—ports, destinations, airlines, tour operators, and suppliers—the message is clear: prepare for more volume, but also for a traveler who expects personalization, connectivity, and a firm commitment to sustainability.

AAA’s new Cruise Forecast sketches a record horizon for 2026 and a better-than-expected second half of 2025. With 21.7 million Americans projected for next year and 20.7 million for this one, the segment confirms that the preference for cruising is not cyclical but structural. From here, the key will be managing growth intelligently: diversifying itineraries to ease pressure on saturated ports, strengthening coordination with local authorities, and raising the bar on sustainability—energy efficiency, waste management, shore power adoption, and tangible benefits for communities—so the boom’s positive impact multiplies. If the industry maintains that balance between scale, quality, and responsibility, record passenger numbers will be only the visible tip of a deeper transformation in how we travel by sea.

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