Unstoppable tourism: 30 billion trips projected by 2034

12-07-25

The World Economic Forum, in collaboration with Kearney and the Ministry of Tourism of Saudi Arabia, has released a projection of tremendous scope: the global travel and tourism industry could reach 30 billion trips annually by 2034. If this forecast materializes, it would trigger a massive expansion of the sector, generating up to $16 trillion in global GDP—equivalent to more than 11% of the world economy.

Turning that number into reality will require an enormous investment in infrastructure. It is estimated that nearly 7 million new hotel rooms will need to be built, along with 15 million additional flights per year. Significant resources must also be allocated to road networks, airports, land transport, renewable energy, digital technologies, and workforce training to sustain this growing demand.

This scenario also presents exceptional opportunities in key regions. Asia is emerging as the most dynamic tourism economy on the planet. The region's direct contribution to GDP from tourism could exceed 7% by 2034. India and China are expected to be the main drivers of this growth, and by 2030, they could represent more than 25% of all outbound international travel. Other emerging economies—such as Sri Lanka, Thailand, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia—are aggressively investing in infrastructure, destinations, and connectivity to capture a share of this booming travel flow.

As global demand diversifies, niche segments such as ecotourism and sports tourism are experiencing rapid growth. Ecotourism alone is seeing an annual increase of nearly 14%, while sports tourism is projected to become a $1.7 trillion industry by 2032. These segments offer powerful economic potential but also compel the sector to rethink regulatory frameworks and sustainability strategies.

That is where the industry's biggest challenge lies: environmental impact. Today, travel and tourism are responsible for nearly 8% of global CO₂ emissions. Without mitigation, that figure could rise to 15% by 2034. Additionally, tourist-generated waste could reach 205 million tons per year—7% of global solid waste output.

It’s clear that turning this projected growth into sustainable and responsible progress will require a deep strategic shift. Industry leaders must drive massive reinvestment in clean energy, efficient transportation, sustainable infrastructure, and regenerative tourism practices. Public-private partnerships will also be essential to reconcile economic profitability with environmental protection.

If approached correctly, tourism could become an even stronger engine for global economic recovery and a decisive catalyst for job creation and development. According to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), the sector is growing at a pace 1.5 times faster than the global economy. However, without responsible management, this same growth could threaten our climate and natural ecosystems.

We are, therefore, at a tipping point. If international policies succeed in balancing economic growth, investment, innovation, and sustainability, the 30 billion projected trips could become not only an extraordinary figure but also a historic opportunity to redefine tourism as a balanced and regenerative global model. Without that strategic shift, the industry's carbon footprint, environmental degradation, and mounting waste may turn this quantitative boom into a global qualitative crisis.

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