Predictions point to a busy hurricane season in 2024
27-05-24
Travel advisors are well aware of the chaos hurricanes can wreak on travel plans, from flight disruptions and cancelled cruises to widespread damage and loss of life. This year, predictions suggest that the 2024 hurricane season could be one of the most disruptive in recent memory.
Numerous private, public and government institutions have issued their forecasts, and none anticipate a calmer-than-normal season. In fact, only one of the more than 20 forecasting agencies is predicting a normal season.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) anticipates an Atlantic hurricane season with 17 to 25 named storms, including 8 to 13 hurricanes and 4 to 7 major hurricanes (categories 3 to 5).
By comparison, a typical season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Last year there were 20 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, despite predictions of only a “slightly more active” season.
NOAA's National Weather Service also predicts an “above average” hurricane season, reflecting the NHC forecast of 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes and 4 to 7 major hurricanes.
The expected increase in activity is attributed to near-record ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, the development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all factors that favor tropical storm formation.
WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee-based weather analysis firm, issued a particularly alarming forecast, predicting a 90-95% chance of a hyperactive hurricane season with at least two-thirds more tropical activity than normal.
Chief Meteorologist Ryan Truchelut stated that the 2024 season has a 50% chance of producing 22-26 tropical storms, 10-13 hurricanes and 5-8 major hurricanes. The main driver for this prediction is sea surface temperatures, which are already as warm as they usually are in late August, with no signs of a mean reversion. Although atmospheric conditions are not yet conducive for hurricane formation, they are expected to become so shortly.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in March predicted 17 named storms and 9 hurricanes in the Atlantic by the end of September 2024, forecasting a “particularly active” season. The ECMWF also cited the shift to La Niña conditions as a critical factor, which could favor storm formation and reduce the wind shear that usually prevents the development of tropical storms.
Forecasters at Colorado State University (CSU) have also predicted an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season. In an April release, CSU researchers projected a 62% chance of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coast, 19% higher than average.
They anticipate 23 named tropical storms, including 11 hurricanes, along with 45 hurricane days and 13 major hurricane days. The CSU forecast emphasizes that coastal residents should prepare thoroughly each season, as even a single hurricane making landfall can make for an active season.
Overall, the consensus among forecasters is clear: the 2024 hurricane season is expected to be hyperactive, with significant implications for travel, coastal communities, and emergency preparedness efforts throughout the Atlantic basin.
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