Carlos Cendra, partner and director of Marketing and Communications at Mabrian, notes that "the decrease in weather perception is affecting flight searches from the U.S. to Cancun, which have dropped approximately 20% in the last four days for trips scheduled from July 1-7." This trend could spread to other important markets for the destination, making it necessary to maintain constant vigilance throughout the season to protect demand forecasts in a period that is anticipated to be meteorologically challenging.

Hurricane season preparations: long-term focus

Mabrian's analysis also examines the medium- and long-term impact, anticipating a particularly active Atlantic hurricane season due to warming waters, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). NOAA estimates that there is an 85% chance of above-average cyclone activity in 2024.

The Weather Perception Index for the destinations analyzed has also shown declines compared to the same week last year. In the Mexican Caribbean, Beryl has caused a 52% reduction in its PCI compared to the same period in 2023; Jamaica has recorded a year-on-year decrease of 24%; and the Dominican Republic 12%.

"The year-on-year change in the Climate Perception Index highlights the importance of systematically measuring this indicator for destinations exposed to severe inclement weather, such as hurricanes," comments Mabrian's spokesperson. "Climate change is a phenomenon that will continue to alter weather patterns, and destinations must be prepared to face, both tactically and strategically, one of the greatest challenges of our time."