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24-11-22

International tourism is on track to reach 65% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022, as the sector continues to recover from the pandemic.

An estimated 700 million tourists travelled internationally between January and September, more than double (+133%) the figure recorded in the same period in 2021. This is equivalent to 63% of 2019 levels and puts the sector on track to reach 65% of its pre-pandemic levels this year, in line with UNWTO scenarios. The results were driven by strong pent-up demand, improving confidence levels and the lifting of restrictions in a growing number of destinations.

Highlighting the speed at which the sector has recovered from the worst crisis in its history, the latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer reveals that monthly arrivals were 64% below 2019 levels in January 2022 and had reached -27% in September. An estimated 340 million international arrivals were recorded in the third quarter of 2022 alone, almost 50% of the nine-month total.

Europe continues to lead the global recovery

Europe continues to lead the rebound in international tourism. The region received 477 million international arrivals between January and September 2022 (68% of the global total), reaching 81% of pre-pandemic levels. This was more than double the 2021 figure (+126%), with performance driven by strong intra-regional demand and travel from the United States. Europe experienced particularly strong results in the third quarter, when arrivals reached almost 90% of 2019 levels.

Similarly, the Middle East saw international arrivals more than triple (+225%) year-on-year in January-September 2022, rising to 77% of pre-pandemic levels. Africa (+166%) and the Americas (+106%) also recorded strong growth compared to 2021, reaching 63% and 66% of 2019 levels, respectively. In Asia Pacific (+230%) arrivals more than tripled in the first nine months of 2022, reflecting the opening of many destinations, including Japan at the end of September. However, Asia Pacific arrivals remained 83% below 2019 levels. China, a key source market for the region, remains closed.

Arrivals and arrivals are at or above pre-pandemic levels.

Several sub-regions reached 80% to 90% of their pre-pandemic arrivals in January-September 2022. Western Europe (88%) and Southern Mediterranean Europe (86%) recorded the fastest recovery towards 2019 levels. The Caribbean, Central America (both 82%) and Northern Europe (81%) also performed well. Destinations reporting arrivals above pre-pandemic levels in the nine months to September included Albania, Ethiopia, Honduras, Andorra, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Colombia, El Salvador and Iceland.

In the month of September, arrivals exceeded pre-pandemic levels in the Middle East (+3% over 2019) and the Caribbean (+1%) and were close in Central America (-7%), Northern Europe (-9%) and Southern Europe and the Mediterranean (-10%).

Meanwhile, some destinations recorded notable increases in international tourism receipts in the first seven to nine months of 2022, including Serbia, Romania, Turkey, Latvia, Portugal, Pakistan, Mexico, Morocco and France. The recovery is also seen in outbound tourism spending by major outbound markets, with strong results from France, where spending reached -8% in the year to September compared to 2019. Other markets reporting strong spending in the first six to nine months of 2022 included Belgium, Germany, Italy, Italy, the United States, Qatar, India and Saudi Arabia. 

Strong demand for air travel and hotel accommodation

The robust tourism recovery is also reflected in various industry indicators, such as air capacity and hotel metrics, as captured in the UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker. Air seat capacity on international routes (measured in available seat kilometres or ASKs) in January-August reached 62% of 2019 levels, with Europe (78%) and the Americas (76%) posting the best results. Worldwide domestic capacity increased to 86% of 2019 levels, with the Middle East (99%) almost reaching pre-pandemic levels (IATA).

Meanwhile, according to STR, global hotel occupancy rates reached 66% in September 2022, up from 43% in January. Europe led the way with occupancy levels of 77% in September 2022, following rates of 74% in July and August. The Americas (66%), the Middle East (63%) and Africa (61%) recorded occupancy rates above 60% in September. By sub-region, Southern Europe (79%), Western Europe (75%) and Oceania (70%) showed the highest occupancy rates in September 2022.

Cautious optimism for the coming months

The difficult economic environment, including persistently high inflation and soaring energy prices, exacerbated by the Russian offensive in Ukraine, could weigh on the pace of recovery in the fourth quarter and in 2023. The latest survey by the UNWTO Tourism Expert Panel shows a decline in confidence levels for the last four months of 2022, reflecting more cautious optimism.

Despite growing challenges pointing to a softening of the pace of recovery, tourism export earnings could reach USD 1.2 to 1.3 trillion in 2022, an increase of 60-70% over 2021, or 70-80% of the USD 1.8 trillion recorded in 2019.