Africa leads regional growth rates with a forecast of 9.4%, estimated at around 273 million passengers in 2025. It is followed by the Middle East (+5.9%) and Asia-Pacific (+5.6%), as well as Latin America, with a projected growth of +4.1%. In contrast, developed regions such as Europe, North America, and parts of East Asia face a more challenging path, burdened by geopolitical tensions, demographic trends (such as population aging in some countries), and increasingly uncertain travel conditions.
Europe, in particular, is expected to surpass 2.5 billion passengers this year, with an estimated growth of 3.6%. On this continent, international traffic will be the main driver of expansion, while domestic flights will lag behind due to competition from other modes of transport—such as rail—on medium and short distances.
Although these figures convey optimism, ACI World cautions that this boom remains highly dependent on the macroeconomic context, international policy conditions, and the ability of airlines and infrastructure to adapt to the new realities of the market. Factors such as fuel costs, emissions regulations, staffing challenges, supply chain delays, and visa or travel restrictions could seriously affect the projected trajectory.
For many emerging regions, however, this rebound represents a historic opportunity to strengthen their position in the global air network. The growth of low-cost carriers, the liberalization of routes, improved regional connectivity, and the modernization of airports and services are all acting as catalysts. If these countries succeed in consolidating investments, building strategic partnerships, and offering an attractive and reliable travel experience, they could capture a significant share of global air transport growth.
By contrast, mature markets will have to deal with the paradox of being highly connected while also more vulnerable to external shocks. Challenges such as airport congestion, rising operating costs, intermodal competition, and more demanding sustainability expectations could limit their expansion capacity. Those countries that fail to adapt or modernize their systems risk seeing their relative prominence erode in favor of rising regions.
Ultimately, reaching nearly 9.8 billion passengers in 2025 will not simply be a quantitative victory but also a pressing call for airlines, governments, regulators, and the tourism sector to collaborate with a long-term vision. Reinforcing infrastructure, digitizing processes, promoting policies that facilitate cross-border mobility, and harmonizing global standards for safety, emissions, and passenger service are all essential.
The message of the report is clear: global aviation is expanding, but its evolution remains fragile. Any headwind—whether from macroeconomic crises, geopolitical disruptions, or regulatory shifts—could alter the projected path. What happens in the coming months will determine not only whether 2025 becomes a record year, but also whether that record can serve as a foundation for a new, more sustainable and balanced era of global air transport.
