The main factor behind this scenario is the influence of La Niña, an oceanic phenomenon characterized by the cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. La Niña tends to reduce wind shear over the Atlantic, creating more favorable atmospheric conditions for the development and strengthening of tropical cyclones. Experts indicate that La Niña has not only returned but could persist through much of the season, generating especially conducive conditions for storm intensification.
In addition to La Niña, another concerning element is the unusual warming of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Ocean temperatures have reached record highs in recent months and are expected to remain elevated throughout the summer. This thermal increase represents an additional energy source for cyclone formation and could lead to more intense and rapidly developing storms.
Meteorology and disaster risk management specialists have warned that this combination of climate conditions could lead to significant impacts in coastal areas of the Caribbean, Central America, the U.S. East Coast, and other vulnerable Atlantic regions. Civil protection authorities, international humanitarian organizations, and local communities are being urged to intensify preventive measures, strengthen evacuation plans, and review emergency response protocols.
For its part, NOAA has reminded the public that, although forecasts are increasingly accurate, it remains impossible to predict exactly when and where cyclones will make landfall. Therefore, it is essential to remain attentive to official weather bulletins and not to lower one’s guard, even if some storms initially appear to pose no immediate threat.
The beginning of this season also coincides with growing global concern about the effects of climate change, which may be intensifying the severity and frequency of extreme weather events. While direct links between global warming and hurricanes are still being studied, numerous reports already suggest that storms tend to become more destructive in a warming world.
In this context, regional cooperation, data sharing, and the implementation of effective early warning systems are more crucial than ever. The Caribbean and its continental partners must face this challenge with a comprehensive approach grounded in both science and civic preparedness.
All indications suggest that 2025 will not be an ordinary year in terms of hurricane activity. The international community—especially countries along the Atlantic basin—must be prepared to face a season that could leave a lasting mark on the region’s climatic history.
