The analysis makes a clear distinction between countries with more consolidated economies—such as Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia—and less industrialized nations, such as Cambodia or Laos. In the former, there is stronger evidence supporting the TLG model, in which tourism acts as a driver of economic growth. In the latter, the EDTG model is more frequently observed, with economic growth paving the way for tourism through improvements in infrastructure and public investment.
The political implications are significant. In consolidated economies where tourism stimulates growth, strategies should prioritize tourism promotion, service enhancement, and infrastructure integration (transportation, digital). In emerging economies, where economic growth drives tourism, the key lies in strengthening macroeconomic policies, investing in health and education, and improving governance so that tourism emerges as an extension of overall progress.
The study also reaffirms the coexistence of both hypotheses—TLG and EDTG—within several ASEAN countries. While in more developed economies a bidirectional causality exists between tourism and growth, in less advanced nations the flow tends to be unidirectional: tourism fuels the economy.
Moreover, the publication emphasizes that tourism has the potential to enhance social indicators beyond GDP: job creation, foreign exchange earnings, infrastructure development, and cultural revitalization, as well as greater regional equity if tourism is properly directed toward rural or disadvantaged areas. However, it cautions that excessive reliance on tourism may create vulnerabilities—such as capital leakage or unsustainable tourism—if not supported by strong governance policies.
Finally, the sophisticated use of SEM in this regional context provides a more holistic and realistic perspective, as it allows for the modeling of latent relationships between observable and non-observable variables, better reflecting the economic and social complexity of each country.
Taken together, this study offers a refined analytical framework that underscores the absence of a one-size-fits-all solution. Each ASEAN nation must assess its own starting point and design strategies that leverage tourism as a catalyst for growth or as a beneficiary of broader economic progress. The findings open the door to more nuanced and effective development policies, adaptable to the specific realities and needs of each regional economy.
The study shows that in the more developed economies of Southeast Asia, tourism acts as a driver of growth, while in less developed ones, economic development is what drives tourism. This dual dynamic requires tailored strategies: some focused on strengthening tourism as an active sector, and others on consolidating the economic foundation first so that a solid and sustainable tourism industry can later emerge.
