The Bank of Spain warns of the impact of climate change on tourism

23-05-24

The Bank of Spain has issued a warning about the significant impact that climate change could have on the Spanish tourism sector. According to a recent study published by the banking supervisor, entitled 'The recent diversification of international tourist flows to Spain', climate change is already altering tourism patterns in the country, with a notable increase in foreign tourist arrivals during the autumn and winter months, versus much more modest growth in the summer months.

The report notes that in July 2023, the European Commission published a study identifying some regions of Spain as particularly vulnerable to climate change. Although the tourism sector initially downplayed the possibility of a significant decline in tourism due to high temperatures, the Bank of Spain insists on not underestimating this risk.

“It is important to highlight that our country is particularly exposed to the physical risks associated with climate change, so the impact of global warming on tourism activity could have a more adverse impact than has been observed in recent years,” the Bank of Spain report states.

Changes in tourism patterns

The Bank of Spain's analysis already notes a change of pattern in the latter part of 2023 and the first months of 2024, attributed to both climate change and instability in the Middle East. This change has resulted in a more deseasonalized tourism model, with an increase in visitors outside the traditional high season, and more diversified, not focused solely on 'sun and beach' tourism. In addition, there is a trend towards more profitable tourism, with higher spending per tourist.

Before the pandemic, international tourism in Spain was characterized by a high temporal and geographic concentration. Tourists tended to visit mainly during the summer months, with 80% of them going to the Canary Islands, Balearic Islands, Catalonia and Andalusia. However, in recent months there has been a notable change, with a greater increase in visits in autumn and winter and a greater interest in the northern regions of the country.

Increase of tourists in autumn and winter

The study, prepared by Blanca Jiménez García and Coral García Esteban, reveals that in October, November and December 2023, the number of tourists increased by 10%, 16% and 25% respectively, compared to the same months in 2016-2019. In the first quarter of 2024, this increase reached 22% compared to the same period of the previous year. In contrast, in the summer months, the increase was only 1%.

Geographical diversification of tourism

The report also highlights a change in the geographical distribution of tourism.

The report also highlights a change in the geographical distribution of tourism. In 2023, hotel overnight stays by foreign tourists in the Cantabrian Sea, Navarre and La Rioja regions increased by more than 26% compared to the pre-pandemic period. In contrast, the traditional tourist areas of the Canary Islands, Balearic Islands and Andalusia experienced slight decreases of 0.5%, 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.

Increased profitability of tourism

In addition to the change in the temporal and geographic distribution, the Bank of Spain study points to a diversification in the origin of tourists. Historically, the majority of foreign tourists in Spain came from the United Kingdom, France and Germany. However, in 2023, a growth of over 40% was observed in the number of tourists coming from the United States compared to the 2016-2019 period. On the other hand, traditional issuing countries showed more moderate growth, such as France with 5% or Italy with 14%, and even setbacks, such as Germany and the United Kingdom, which exhibited drops of around 5%.

One aspect highlighted in the report is the increase in the number of overnight stays in higher category hotels (four and five stars), which is in line with a greater supply of this type of establishments and an increase in the average expenditure per tourist. According to the Hotel Occupancy Survey, the number of overnight stays in higher category establishments has increased by 10% above the 2016-2019 average, while the lower categories have not yet recovered their pre-pandemic levels.

Contributing factors.

The Bank of Spain stresses that climate change could be driving tourist shifts to destinations with more moderate summer temperatures. This phenomenon would reduce the concentration of tourists in the areas of greatest affluence during the summer months and would increase the occupation of beach destinations during autumn and winter. In addition, the instability in the Middle East, derived from the war between Gaza and Israel, has given Spain a competitive advantage over other destinations in the Eastern Mediterranean, such as Egypt.

Impact and future projections

Although the changes observed so far have had positive consequences, such as greater diversification and deseasonalization of tourism, the Bank of Spain warns that it is crucial not to underestimate the long-term risks associated with climate change. The entity points out that Spain's vulnerability to the physical risks of climate change could have a more significant adverse impact in the future, affecting both the quantity and quality of tourism.

The report highlights the need to adapt tourism strategies to mitigate the potential negative effects of climate change. This includes diversifying tourism offerings, promoting destinations less affected by extreme heat, and improving infrastructure and services in regions that are experiencing an increase in the influx of tourists.

Recommendations for the future

The Bank of Spain recommends that tourism stakeholders and local and national authorities consider adaptation measures that address the challenges of climate change. Among the recommendations are:

• Sustainable Infrastructure Development: Invest in tourism infrastructure that is resilient to climate change, such as efficient water and energy management systems, and buildings designed to withstand extreme weather conditions.

• Promotion of Tourism in Alternative Seasons and Regions: Promote tourism in less heat-affected seasons and regions, thus diversifying the tourism offer and reducing pressure on traditional areas of high affluence.

• Innovation and Sustainability: Implement sustainable practices in the tourism sector, such as promoting environmentally friendly means of transportation, reducing waste and encouraging tourism activities that do not depend exclusively on good weather.

• Education and Awareness: Raise awareness among tourists and the local population about the impacts of climate change and the importance of adopting sustainable practices.

• International Collaboration: Collaborate with other countries and international organizations to share knowledge and effective strategies for climate change adaptation in the tourism sector.

The Bank of Spain report highlights the growing importance of considering the impact of climate change on tourism. Although positive changes are currently being observed in terms of diversification and deseasonalization, it is essential that the sector prepares for long-term challenges. Adaptation and resilience will be key to ensuring that Spain continues to be a world-leading tourism destination, able to offer attractive and sustainable experiences to international visitors.

While climate change is already altering tourism patterns in Spain in a noticeable way, it is imperative that the tourism sector and authorities adopt proactive strategies to mitigate the risks and maximize the opportunities that these changes may present. Only this will ensure the continued sustainability and prosperity of tourism in Spain.