According to Oliver Wyman, the world's aircraft fleet will grow by 28% by 2034

16-05-24

The global aircraft fleet will experience significant growth over the next decade, increasing by 28% to 36,400 aircraft by 2034, up from 28,400 today. This is according to the annual report ‘Global Fleet & MRO Market Forecast 2024-2034’ by consultancy Oliver Wyman.

The report highlights that 2024 will be the first year of real growth in the global aircraft fleet since the peak reached before the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) will be 2.5%, slightly lower than the 2.9% projected last year for 2023-2033. This adjustment is due to more modest global economic growth, influenced by higher global interest rates and lower than expected aircraft production.

Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO)

Slower growth will also be reflected in demand in the maintenance, repair and overhaul sector, which will grow by 1.8% annually on average until 2034, reaching revenues of $124 billion (€114.828 billion). By 2024, the sector's revenues are expected to increase by almost 3% to $104 billion (96.307 billion euros), up from $101 billion (93.528 billion euros) last year.

Challenges for Airbus and Boeing

The report notes that major aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing are pushing their production capacities to the limit, aiming to reach new monthly peaks in the next decade. However, reaching these targets on time seems unlikely without significant investment in their facilities and those of their major suppliers. After three years of pandemic, inflation and shortages of raw materials and labour, the aerospace industry faces an urgent need to modernise and optimise production throughout the supply chain.

India to Lead Growth in Asia

Asia will continue to be the economic engine of the aerospace industry, with India leading expansion over the next decade, overtaking China. With more than 600 aircraft today, the Indian fleet will grow by almost 13% in the first five years and by nearly 10% in the decade ahead, leading to a 2.5-fold increase by 2034. India has ordered more than 1,800 aircraft, tripling its current fleet size, driven by its growing population of 1.4 billion, of which only 3% fly regularly.

Situation in China and Western Europe

China, meanwhile, will face slowing economic growth due to factors such as falling property values, an ageing population and youth unemployment. Despite this, by 2034, China will have the second largest fleet, overtaking Western Europe, which will fall to third place. The Chinese fleet will grow by 56% in the next decade.

By comparison, the US fleet, the world's largest, will grow from 8,200 to 9,850 aircraft by 2034. Western Europe, with a current fleet of more than 5,300 aircraft, will reach almost 5,900 in the same period.

Oliver Wyman's report paints a picture of moderate growth and significant challenges for the global aerospace industry, with India emerging as a key leader in aircraft fleet growth. The need for modernisation and optimisation in the supply chain will be crucial for major manufacturers and the industry as a whole to achieve their production targets and meet growing demand.