Preliminary estimates of tourism's economic contribution, measured in terms of direct tourism gross domestic product (GDP), point to US$3.3 trillion in 2023, or 3% of global GDP. This indicates a recovery in direct tourism GDP achieved before the pandemic, driven by strong growth in domestic and international tourism.
Several destinations indicated strong growth in international tourism receipts during the first ten months or twelve months of 2023, in some cases outpacing arrivals growth. Some major outbound markets also indicated strong outbound tourism demand during this period, in many cases exceeding levels achieved in 2019.
The sustained recovery is also reflected in the results of industry indicators. According to the UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker, both air capacity and passenger demand internationally recovered to approximately 90% of pre-pandemic levels by October 2023 (IATA). Global occupancy rates at tourist accommodation establishments reached 64% in November, up slightly from the 63% recorded in November 2022 (based on STR data).
Outlook for 2024
International tourism is expected to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels by 2024, with initial estimates pointing to 2% growth from 2019 levels. These central UNWTO forecasts remain subject to the pace of recovery in Asia, and to developments in the current unfavorable economic and geopolitical environment.
The positive outlook is reflected in the latest UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index survey, according to which 67% of tourism professionals indicate a better or much better outlook for 2024 compared to 2023. Approximately 28% anticipate similar results, while only 6% believe tourism performance will be worse in 2024 than last year. The main considerations are:
There remains plenty of room for recovery across Asia. The reopening of several outbound markets and destinations will drive recovery in the region and globally.
Outbound and inbound tourism is expected to accelerate in 2024, due to visa facilitation and improved air capacity. China is implementing a visa-free travel policy for citizens of France, Germany, Italy, Malaysia, the Netherlands, Spain and Spain for one year until November 30, 2024.
Visa and travel facilitation measures will promote travel to and around the Middle East and Africa, and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries will implement unified tourist visas, similar to the Schengen visa, and measures aimed at facilitating travel within Africa in Kenya and Rwanda.
All signs point to Europe improving its performance again in 2024. In March, Romania and Bulgaria will join the Schengen free movement zone, and Paris will host the Summer Olympics in July and August.
Growth in tourism from the United States, supported by a strong U.S. dollar, will continue to benefit destinations in the Americas and beyond. As in 2023, strong outbound markets in Europe, the Americas and the Middle East will continue to drive tourism flows and tourism spending worldwide.
The unfavorable economic and geopolitical situation will continue to pose considerable challenges to the sustained recovery of international tourism and confidence levels. Persistent inflation, high interest rates, volatile oil prices and disruptions to trade flows may continue to impact transportation and accommodation costs in 2024.
Against this backdrop, it is expected that tourists will seek to get the most for their money and travel to destinations closer to home. Sustainable practices and adaptability will also play an increasing role in consumer decisions.
Staffing shortages continue to be a critical issue, as tourism businesses face a shortage of workers to meet high demand.
Developments in the Hamas-Israel conflict are likely to disrupt travel in the Middle East and impact traveler confidence. Uncertainty stemming from Russia's aggression against Ukraine, as well as other rising geopolitical tensions, continue to have an impact on confidence.