International tourism to reach pre-pandemic levels by 2024

21-01-24

After the good results recorded in 2023, international tourism is on track to reach pre-pandemic levels by 2024.

According to the first issue of the year's UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, international tourism reached 88% of pre-pandemic levels in 2023, with an estimated 1.3 billion international arrivals. The release of remaining pent-up demand, increased air connectivity and further recovery of Asian markets and destinations are expected to support a full recovery by the end of 2024.  

Middle East, Europe and Africa performed the best in 2023.  

The latest issue of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer provides a comprehensive overview of the sector's performance in 2023 by tracking recovery by global region, sub-region and destination. Key findings are: 

• The Middle East led the recovery in relative terms, as the only region to exceed the levels recorded before the pandemic, with arrivals exceeding the levels reached in 2019 byl22%. 

• Europe, the world's most visited region, reached 94% of the levels achieved in 2019, supported by intraregional demand and travel from the United States. 

• Africa recovered 96% of pre-pandemic visitors, and the Americas 90%. 

• Asia and the Pacific reached 65% of pre-pandemic levels, following the reopening of several markets and destinations. However, results are mixed, as South Asia has already recovered 87% of the levels reached in 2019 and Northeast Asia close to 55%.  

Available data shows that several destinations, including large and established destinations as well as small and emerging destinations, showed double-digit growth in international arrivals in 2023 compared to 2019. Four subregions exceeded their arrivals levels achieved in 2019: Southern Mediterranean Europe, the Caribbean, Central America and North Africa.    

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili says: "UNWTO's latest data highlights the resilience and rapid recovery of tourism, with all signs pointing to achieving pre-pandemic numbers by the end of 2024. The recovery is already having a strong impact on economies, jobs, growth and opportunities for communities around the world. These figures are also a reminder of the critical task of promoting sustainability and inclusiveness in tourism development."   

International tourism reached US$1.4 trillion in 2023.   

The latest UNWTO data also highlight the economic impact of the recovery.  

• In 2023, according to preliminary estimates, international tourism receipts reached US$1.4 trillion, approximately 93% of the US$1.5 trillion earned by destinations in 2019.   

• In 2023, total export receipts from tourism (including passenger transport) were estimated at US$1.6 trillion, nearly 95% of the US$1.7 trillion recorded in 2019.  

• Preliminary estimates of tourism's economic contribution, measured in terms of direct tourism gross domestic product (GDP), point to US$3.3 trillion in 2023, or 3% of global GDP. This indicates a recovery in direct tourism GDP achieved before the pandemic, driven by strong growth in domestic and international tourism.  

Several destinations indicated strong growth in international tourism receipts during the first ten months or twelve months of 2023, in some cases outpacing arrivals growth. Some major outbound markets also indicated strong outbound tourism demand during this period, in many cases exceeding levels achieved in 2019.  

The sustained recovery is also reflected in the results of industry indicators. According to the UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker, both air capacity and passenger demand internationally recovered to approximately 90% of pre-pandemic levels by October 2023 (IATA). Global occupancy rates at tourist accommodation establishments reached 64% in November, up slightly from the 63% recorded in November 2022 (based on STR data). 

Outlook for 2024 

International tourism is expected to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels by 2024, with initial estimates pointing to 2% growth from 2019 levels. These central UNWTO forecasts remain subject to the pace of recovery in Asia, and to developments in the current unfavorable economic and geopolitical environment.   

The positive outlook is reflected in the latest UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index survey, according to which 67% of tourism professionals indicate a better or much better outlook for 2024 compared to 2023. Approximately 28% anticipate similar results, while only 6% believe tourism performance will be worse in 2024 than last year. The main considerations are:   

• There remains plenty of room for recovery across Asia. The reopening of several outbound markets and destinations will drive recovery in the region and globally. 

• Outbound and inbound tourism is expected to accelerate in 2024, due to visa facilitation and improved air capacity. China is implementing a visa-free travel policy for citizens of France, Germany, Italy, Malaysia, the Netherlands, Spain and Spain for one year until November 30, 2024.  

• Visa and travel facilitation measures will promote travel to and around the Middle East and Africa, and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries will implement unified tourist visas, similar to the Schengen visa, and measures aimed at facilitating travel within Africa in Kenya and Rwanda. 

• All signs point to Europe improving its performance again in 2024. In March, Romania and Bulgaria will join the Schengen free movement zone, and Paris will host the Summer Olympics in July and August.  

• Growth in tourism from the United States, supported by a strong U.S. dollar, will continue to benefit destinations in the Americas and beyond. As in 2023, strong outbound markets in Europe, the Americas and the Middle East will continue to drive tourism flows and tourism spending worldwide. 

• The unfavorable economic and geopolitical situation will continue to pose considerable challenges to the sustained recovery of international tourism and confidence levels. Persistent inflation, high interest rates, volatile oil prices and disruptions to trade flows may continue to impact transportation and accommodation costs in 2024.   

• Against this backdrop, it is expected that tourists will seek to get the most for their money and travel to destinations closer to home. Sustainable practices and adaptability will also play an increasing role in consumer decisions.     

• Staffing shortages continue to be a critical issue, as tourism businesses face a shortage of workers to meet high demand.  

• Developments in the Hamas-Israel conflict are likely to disrupt travel in the Middle East and impact traveler confidence. Uncertainty stemming from Russia's aggression against Ukraine, as well as other rising geopolitical tensions, continue to have an impact on confidence.