Tourism in Europe shows strong rebound, but remains uneven

13-11-23

After a summer of strong tourism demand, international tourist arrivals to Europe are only 3.2% below 2019 levels, and overnight stays are down 1.3% in the January-September period.

The recovery is being driven by the resilience of travel within Europe and the influx of U.S. tourists benefiting from favorable exchange rates.

That's according to the latest edition of the quarterly 'European Tourism Trends and Outlook' report, published by CTE, the European Travel Commission, which provides an overview of Europe's tourism performance over the summer months and its implications for the outlook for the region.

Year-to-date data shows that around 1 in 3 reported destinations have exceeded 2019 levels of foreign arrivals.

The recovery in Europe was mainly driven by Southern European and Mediterranean destinations, in particular Serbia (+15%), Montenegro (+14%), Portugal (+11%), Turkey (+8%), Malta and Greece (both +7%).

However, some 65% of reported destinations are still below pre-pandemic figures.

Slower recoveries are particularly evident among Eastern European countries neighboring Russia and Ukraine, and those normally dependent on Russian travelers. The Baltic countries have recorded the steepest declines: Estonia (-27%), Latvia (-30%) and Lithuania (-33%).

Miguel Sanz, president of the ETC, commented after the publication of the report: 'despite persistent economic and geopolitical challenges, it is encouraging to see the current upturn in European tourism. However, we must recognize that the true measure of tourism success extends beyond the number of visitors and nights spent in a destination. It is essential to also consider and assess its impact on nature, local businesses and the resident population. As the European tourism industry recovers, we must strive to develop innovative and sustainable metrics to better define its overall health and progress'.

Full tourism recovery is in sight despite lingering inflation and geopolitical instability

Europe's travel recovery remained resilient during the summer season, even amid significant challenges posed by rising inflation, high living costs, extreme weather events and airline strikes.

Persistent geopolitical instability continues to impact the outlook for tourism in Europe. The ongoing war in Ukraine still affects arrival figures in Eastern Europe and the developing conflict in Israel poses risks heading into the mid-season, especially for destinations such as France, Turkey and Romania, which are popular with Israeli travelers.

However, foreign arrivals to Europe are expected to continue to recover by the end of 2023, albeit at a slower pace, reaching 91% of pre-pandemic full-year levels. Forecasts suggest that international tourist arrivals to Europe will reach 2019 levels by 2024, one year earlier than initially expected.

Meanwhile, European airports are close to achieving a full recovery in passenger demand.

According to ACI Europe's August traffic report, passenger traffic on the European airport network is down only 3.4% compared to the same period in 2019.

Tourists prefer affordability and off-peak travel

Despite increasing financial pressures, consumers continue to prioritize travel spending over other discretionary spending. However, due to high prices, tourists are now placing greater emphasis on value for money when considering tourism products and experiences.

In particular, an increasing number of tourists are opting for destinations that are considered more affordable.

Lower prices and favorable exchange rates are driving tourism recovery in destinations such as Turkey and Bulgaria, while popular package holiday destinations such as Portugal and Spain are also experiencing strong demand.

Overall, Europeans are considering a wider range of destinations than in the pre-pandemic period, with Turkey, Montenegro, Albania and Croatia performing best in overnight stays compared to 2019 levels.

In addition, travelers are increasingly employing a range of tactics to reduce the overall cost of their vacation. Many are opting to book their transportation and accommodations well in advance or considering off-peak travel in the mid-season.

Package tours are also gaining popularity, as they provide travelers with the confidence that all essential costs are already accounted for.