UNWTO: new data points to tourism rebound in 2023

10-05-23

International tourism is making good progress towards returning to pre-pandemic levels, with twice as many people travelling in the first quarter of 2023 as in the same period in 2022.

Lessons learned from new UNWTO data

The second UNWTO World Tourism Barometer of the year indicates that the sector's recovery continues its rapid evolution in 2023. In particular, it has drawn the following conclusions:

Overall, international arrivals reached 80% of pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of 2023.

In these first three months, an estimated 235 million tourists made international trips, more than double the number in the same period in 2022.

Tourism has continued to demonstrate its resilience. According to revised data for 2022, there were more than 960 million international tourist movements last year, restoring two-thirds (66%) of pre-pandemic figures.

Recovery by region in the first quarter of 2023:

The Middle East recorded the best performance, as the only region to exceed 2019 arrivals (+15%) and the first to recover pre-pandemic figures on a full quarter basis.

Europe reached 90% of pre-pandemic levels thanks to strong intra-regional demand.

Africa and the Americas reached 88% and close to 85%, respectively, of 2019 levels.

The Asia-Pacific region accelerated its recovery to 54% of pre-pandemic levels, but this upward trend is expected to intensify now that most destinations, China in particular, have reopened their borders to non-essential travel.

In many places, we are close to or even above pre-pandemic levels of arrivals.

The UNWTO data also looks at recovery by sub-region and by destination: Southern Mediterranean Europe and North Africa have also returned to pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of 2023, while Western Europe, Northern Europe, Central America and the Caribbean have come very close to reaching those levels.

What do these data mean?

In the words of Zurab Pololikashvili, UNWTO Secretary-General: "This beginning of the year has once again shown the extraordinary resilience of tourism. In many places, we are close to or even above pre-pandemic levels of arrivals. However, we must remain vigilant to challenges ranging from geopolitical insecurity, staff shortages and the potential impact of the cost of living crisis on tourism, and we must ensure that the return of tourism fulfils its responsibilities as a solution to the climate emergency and as a driver of inclusive development".

International tourism receipts again surpassed the $1 trillion mark in 2022, growing by 50% in real terms compared to 2021, driven by a strong rebound in international travel. International visitor spending reached 64% of pre-pandemic levels (-36% compared to 2019, measured in real terms). By region, Europe performed the best in 2022, with almost USD 550 billion in tourism receipts (EUR 520 billion), 87% of pre-pandemic figures. Africa recovered 75% of its pre-COVID-19 revenues, the Middle East 70% and the Americas 68%. As a result of the prolonged border closures to non-essential travel, Asian destinations earned around 28% of their pre-pandemic values.

What does the future hold?

The results for the first quarter of 2023 are in line with UNWTO forecasts for that year, according to which international arrivals will recover to between 80% and 95% of pre-pandemic levels. The UNWTO Panel of Experts is confident that the peak season (May to August) will bear fruit in the northern hemisphere, as indicated by the latest UNWTO Confidence Index, which predicts even better results than in 2022 for this period.

However, the recovery of tourism also has some challenges ahead.  According to the UNWTO Panel of Experts, the main factor weighing on the actual recovery of international tourism in 2023 is the economic situation, as high inflation and rising oil prices result in higher transport and accommodation costs. It is therefore to be expected that tourists will increasingly seek value for money and travel closer to home. The uncertainty caused by Russia's aggression in Ukraine and other rising geopolitical tensions also pose downside risks.