Hurricane season 2023: What's coming?

27-06-23

Meteorologists at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, a division of the US National Weather Service, predict near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year. 

NOAA's outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from 1 June to 30 November, predicts a 40 per cent chance of a near-normal season, a 30 per cent chance of an above-normal season and a 30 per cent chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA forecasts 12 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of these, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has 70% confidence in these ranges.

The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than those of recent years, due to concurrent factors - some suppressing storm development and others driving it - that boost this year's overall forecast of a near-normal season.

After three hurricane seasons with La Niña present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Niño to develop this summer, which may suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. The potential influence of El Niño on storm development could be offset by favourable conditions in the tropical Atlantic basin. 

These conditions include the possibility of an above-normal West African monsoon, which produces East African waves and seeds some of the strongest and longest-lasting Atlantic storms, and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, creating more energy to fuel storm development. 

These factors are part of the longer-term variability in Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic conditions that favour hurricane development - known as the era of high Atlantic hurricane activity - which has been producing more active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995. 

Cedric J. Van Meerbeeck, a climatologist at the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), says we can expect a "slightly more active" hurricane season in the Caribbean this year, mainly due to climate change.

"We face a number of weather threats that can have very detrimental effects on human life, property, livelihoods, businesses, investments and the environment," said Kenneth Bryan, Cayman Islands Minister of Tourism and Ports and Chairman of the Caribbean Tourism Organisation (CTO).

MeerBeeck, Bryan and other officials made the remarks during a recent CTO press conference to discuss the upcoming hurricane season. Van Meerbeeck said that the height of the hurricane season can be expected between August and October, but stressed that September 10 in particular could be a particularly bad day for the Caribbean. 

"Hydrometeorological and hydroclimatic events, such as tropical storms and hurricanes accompanied by strong winds, storm surges and flooding, represent the most frequent hazards in the Caribbean," he said.

Meerbeeck said that humid heat, heat waves, marine heat waves, and temperatures could possibly be as hot as in 2016 and 2020. He said there will be heat stress, coral bleaching and compound hazards, such as dangerous heat following devastating storms.

Tropical cyclone activity and heavy rainfall are expected to peak between August and October/November, causing flooding and cascading hazards, along with wind and storm surge impacts, compound hazards.

"But we also face very real impacts caused by global climate change ranging from periods of drought and dry spells, affecting our water supplies and resources, heat waves affecting the health of our tourism employees and visitors alike, sea level rise, which accelerates beach erosion and therefore increases the vulnerability of tourism facilities, many of which are located in low lying coastal areas," Bryan said. 

Tropical cyclone activity will also increase. This means there is a high potential for heavy rainfall. There will also be a steady decrease in heat stress and a high potential for flooding rains, Meerbeeck said. In the Pacific, El Niño is very likely to develop in the coming months. 

"In the Caribbean context," Bryan said, "managing risks from natural hazards and building resilience to climate change are based on the same practices aimed at saving lives, property and investments."