Aviation and cruise ships in the eye of the environmental hurricane
22-06-23
In 20 years' time, more than 44,000 passenger aircraft are expected to take to the skies, doubling the current global fleet.
Studies by the European Environment Agency (EEA) show that cruise ships and aircraft are the most CO₂ emitting modes of transport per passenger kilometre - the agency points out that while ferry shipping is very efficient, cruise ships are particularly polluting - yet the current size of the world's fleets are very different: 24,000 aircraft vs. 272 cruise ships.
As the Paris-Le Bourget International Air and Space Show 2023 takes place from 19-25 June, many industry giants are sharing their forecasts for the size of the world's aircraft fleet in the near future to meet global demand.
Estimates from two of the industry's most influential voices - Irish aircraft leasing company Avolon and US manufacturer Boeing - range from 44,300 to 48,600 commercial aircraft.
These amounts would double the current fleet within 20 years, which stands at around 24,180 passenger aircraft. Both companies agree that Asia-Pacific will show the strongest growth, followed by Latin America.
Of the world fleet forecast for 2042, the vast majority will be made up of narrow-body aircraft, which will account for more than 70% of the total.
In 2022, 272 cruise ships with an average capacity of 2,126 passengers were sailing the world's seas, according to the Cruise Lines International Association's (CLIA) State of the Industry report.
Between now and 2027, cruise lines plan to welcome up to 75 new ships, an increase of about 27% of the current fleet. However, this is an estimated increase, as many of the new ships may be intended to replace older ones.
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