In 2021, a year of recovery in which luxury surpassed its pre-pandemic sales, "the Chinese consumed, but only in China," continues de Montgolfier. And "2022 was much more complicated because of unforeseen confinements in the country". But that did not stop the sector's international sales from growing by 22%, "without the Chinese".
This growth was supported by the strong presence of American clientele, the continuity of Japanese, Korean and Southeast Asian buyers and "the great revelation of European clientele, ignored for decades (...) and more interested in luxury than expected", explained to AFP Erwan Rambourg, analyst and author of "Future Luxe: what's ahead for the business of luxury".
With the lifting of travel restrictions in China, "there will be a significant return of Chinese tourists, but it will be more in the second quarter," according to Arnaud Cadart, portfolio manager at Flornoy.
"The pandemic is still very present in China and affects a lot of people," he insists.
"The Chinese will be back from April onwards," confirms Erwan Rambourg. And so much the better: "We must not miss the opportunity to win back Chinese customers," says Arnaud Cadart, "the sector needs this change".
This is because tourist flows from the United States and the Middle East could decrease, as the euro-dollar effect is less advantageous. As for European customers, they could be held back by the economic situation and social movements, according to sector specialists.
"European shops need this return of Chinese customers to replace American customers, who could consume more locally," says Arnaud Cadart.
European luxury brands will have to readapt to this returning Chinese clientele, who are used to travelling in groups, and who are joining a larger American and local clientele than before the pandemic.
"There are already queues in front of the shops without Chinese customers... We will need more staff," says Joëlle de Montgolfier. Otherwise, there is a risk of "deteriorating the experience" of luxury boutique shopping.
"The other small concern is that right now we don't know how to predict" the volume of products Chinese customers will want to buy, she says.
Will Chinese tourists return to their preferred historical destinations, i.e. Europe and Asia, and which countries will they choose to stay in? Brands will have to be "agile" to meet this demand, says Joëlle de Montgolfier.
