13-07-22

Worldwide air travel will reach 65% of pre-pandemic levels this summer, according to the Travel Outlook Report 2022 by World Travel Market London (WTM) and analyst firm ForwardKeys. 

The summer report reveals that the current enthusiasm for overseas travel is so strong that rising airfares have done relatively little to dampen demand. For example, the average fare from the US to Europe rose by more than 35% between January and May, with no sign of a slowdown in bookings.

The report also reveals that Europe has experienced the strongest recovery in tourism, registering a 16 percentage point improvement, and now records the highest overall volumes of tourist arrivals. The European region also illustrates the general trend of beach destinations recovering faster than their urban counterparts.

The continued revival of leisure travel worldwide during the third quarter of this year (July, August and September) sets the scene for World Travel Market London, the world's leading event for the travel industry, which will take place at ExCeL from 7-9 November 2022.

A second year-end travel outlook report will be published during World Travel Market London, providing delegates with the latest trends and detailed forecasts based on airline and travel agency bookings.

Africa and the Middle East are the regions set to recover most strongly, with arrivals in Q3 expected to reach 83% of 2019 levels. They are followed by the Americas, where summer arrivals are expected to reach 76%, Europe (71%) and Asia Pacific (35%).

The impressive rebound in summer destinations such as Antalya (Turkey; +81%), Mykonos and Rhodes (both in Greece; both +29%) is partly attributed to early reopening and proactive communication from their countries.  Greece was one of the first European nations to reopen to non-essential travel and has been clear and consistent in its messaging throughout the pandemic.

Interestingly, the urban destinations with the best recovery rates - Naples (Italy; +5%), Istanbul (Turkey; 0%), Athens (Greece; -5%) and Lisbon (Portugal; -8%) - are gateways to nearby sun and beach resorts.

The relatively promising outlook for summer travel to Africa and the Middle East is due to several factors. Many Middle Eastern airports are hubs connecting Asia-Pacific and Europe, so the Middle East is benefiting from a resurgence in intercontinental travel, driven especially by people returning to Asian countries to visit friends and family.

The two countries leading the recovery in African summer travel, Nigeria (+14%) and Ghana (+8%), are not on the traditional tourism map, but have significant diasporas in Europe and North America.

The strong performance of these nations can be attributed to pent-up demand from expatriates to visit friends and family back home.

However, travel to and within the Asia-Pacific region is recovering more slowly, as tighter Covid-19 travel restrictions remain in place for longer.