IATA confirms sustainable aviation consolidation by 2022

09-12-22

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates that sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production will reach at least 300 million litres by 2022, an increase of 200% over the 2021 production of 100 million litres. More optimistic calculations estimate that total production in 2022 could reach 450 million litres. Both scenarios place the SAF industry on the brink of an exponential increase in capacity and production towards an identified tipping point of 30 billion litres by 2030, with the right supporting policies.

Airlines are committed to achieving zero net CO2 emissions by 2050 and see SAF as a key contributor. Current estimates expect SAF to account for 65% of the mitigation needed for this, requiring a production capacity of 450 billion litres per year by 2050.

Having agreed a Long Term Aspirational Goal (LTAG) on climate at the 41st Assembly of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in October 2022, governments now share the same goal for the decarbonisation of aviation and interest in the success of SAF.

"There was at least three times the amount of UAS on the market in 2022 than in 2021. And airlines used every drop, even at very high prices! If more was available, it would have been bought. That makes it clear that this is a supply problem and that market forces alone are insufficient to solve it. Governments, who now share the same net zero target for 2050, must implement comprehensive production incentives for FFS. It is what they did to successfully transition economies to renewable sources of electricity. And it's what aviation needs to decarbonise," said Willie Walsh, IATA Director General.

To date, more than 450 000 commercial flights have been operated with UFPS, and the growing number of airlines signing off-take agreements with producers sends a clear signal to markets that UFPS is needed in greater quantities and, so far in 2022, around 40 off-take agreements have been announced. been signed.

Incentive-based policies

Until we have commercialised options for alternative energy sources such as hydrogen, all aviation PBS supply will be derived from biofuel refineries. These refineries produce renewable biodiesel and biogas as well as UF, and their refining capacity is expected to grow by more than 400% by 2025 compared to 2022. The challenge for aviation is to secure its UFTS supply from this capacity. And to do so successfully, governments must implement incentives for the production of UFTS similar to those that already exist for biogas and biodiesel.